Connect with us

Football

College Football Power Ratings

Preseason:

Power ratings are a topic where you can get a wide variety of opinion and no two will look the same.  In fact, most ratings do not even use the same scale.  Some will have the top team at a rating of 100 and some will have the top team into the 120’s or the top team down in the 20’s and use 0 as the number for the team squarely in the middle.  But in reality, the number in front really doesn’t matter because what we are concerned with is the spread within teams.

Here at Escape the Pocket we will start with the power rating from the end of last year and then adjust each position group up or down based.  In addition to each position group, we also evaluate the coaching situation and look at coordinator changes.  Look at Missouri as an example where Derek Dooley takes over for Josh Heupel in orchestrating a high powered offense with a future NFL QB in Drew Lock.  Will the offense look the same and continue to put up nearly 500 yards of offense again?  And what about the new OC at Florida Atlantic?  Gone is Kendal Briles, a brilliant young offensive mind, and in comes 24-year-old Charlie Weiss Jr. who is the youngest OC in college football.  And then there is the curious case of ASU and it seems like most everybody outside of Tempe thinks Herm Edwards was an awful hire (I am not so sure and that is why I am higher on them in my power ratings than the market).  Then Herm goes out and hires 2 coordinators who have zero head coaching experience in OC Rob Likens and DC Danny Gonzales.  Herm will either look like a genius here or will be back on tv by 2020.

I like to use the Pythagorean differential as one of the main components in my NFL power ratings and I also have used it here in college although I have placed much less emphasis on it than with the NFL.  Basically, the Pythagorean differential is a statistic used to predict wins based on points scored and allowed.  Looking at this we can see what teams got lucky or unlucky last year and then use that information to make adjustments to the power ratings this year. This helps me take out some of the recency bias I might have and look at teams from an analytical viewpoint.  This is critical in the NFL but also has some value in the college game.  Last year Baylor was expected to win 3 games yet only won 1 so they were unlucky and should be looked at a little more favorably heading into this year.

The other statistic I think has some value in looking at power ratings is turnover margin.  This one comes to us courtesy of Phil Steele and while the man can’t pick winners to save his life he does put one hell of a preseason magazine with a lot of good statistics.  The stat below and the table came from his magazine and I think it is something to keep in mind when evaluating teams and predicting their 2018 season.  You will notice that UCF is on both lists as going down and Baylor is on both lists as going up so I would definitely make an adjustment on both those teams based on this information.

  • Teams with a negative double-digit turnover rate have had the same or better record 79% since ‘91
  • Teams with a positive double-digit turnover rate have had the same or worse record 77% since ‘91
Pythagorean Differential Turnover Margin
GOING DOWN GOING UP GOING DOWN GOING UP
Akrion -2 E Mich +2 Wyoming SJ St
UCF -2 FSU +2 UCF Rice
GA St -2 Tulsa +2 Stanford Kansas
ODU -2 Duke +2 Memphis New Mexico
FIU -2 UMass +2 Alabama Texas St
N Tx -2 UTSA +2 Miami fl Oregon St
Mich St -2 UNC +2 Washington Baylor
USC -2 Nevada +2 Boise St MTSU
Texas +2 La Tech Syracuse
Ark St +2 FAU N Texas
VT +2 Penn St E Carolina
Baylor +2 App St BYU
S Carolina Air Force
Tx Tech

 

College Football Power Ratings

 

RANK TEAM CONFERENCE POWER RATING
1 ALABAMA SEC 97
2 CLEMSON ACC 94
3 OHIO STATE BIG TEN 93.5
4 GEORGIA SEC 92
5 WISCONSIN BIG TEN 91.5
6 WASHINGTON PAC-12 91
7 OKLAHOMA BIG 12 90.5
8 STANFORD PAC-12 90
9 MICHIGAN BIG TEN 88
10 NOTRE DAME INDEPENDENT 87.5
11 MICHIGAN STATE BIG TEN 87.5
12 AUBURN SEC 87
13 MISSISSIPPI STATE SEC 86.5
14 PENN STATE BIG TEN 85.5
15 MIAMI (FL) ACC 85
16 FLORIDA STATE ACC 83
17 TCU BIG 12 83
18 TEXAS BIG 12 82.5
19 USC PAC-12 82.5
20 LSU SEC 82
21 FLORIDA SEC 82
22 TEXAS A&M SEC 81.5
23 UTAH PAC-12 81.5
24 VIRGINIA TECH ACC 81
25 OREGON PAC-12 81
26 WEST VIRGINIA BIG 12 81
27 SOUTH CAROLINA SEC 80.5
28 BOISE STATE MWC 80
29 MISSOURI SEC 79.5
30 GEORGIA TECH ACC 79
31 BOSTON COLLEGE ACC 78.5
32 OKLAHOMA STATE BIG 12 78.5
33 NC STATE ACC 78
34 NORTHWESTERN BIG TEN 78
35 FLORIDA ATLANTIC CUSA 78
36 DUKE ACC 77.5
37 KANSAS STATE BIG 12 77.5
38 ARIZONA PAC-12 77
39 WAKE FOREST ACC 77
40 BAYLOR BIG 12 77
41 LOUISVILLE ACC 76.5
42 IOWA BIG TEN 76.5
43 UCF AAC 76
44 MEMPHIS AAC 76
45 TEXAS TECH BIG 12 76
46 NORTH CAROLINA ACC 75.5
47 FRESNO STATE MWC 75.5
48 PURDUE BIG TEN 75
49 IOWA STATE BIG 12 75
50 ARIZONA STATE PAC-12 75
51 CALIFORNIA PAC-12 74.5
52 PITTSBURGH ACC 74.5
53 SAN DIEGO STATE MWC 74.5
54 ARKANSAS SEC 74
55 INDIANA BIG TEN 73.5
56 MARSHALL CUSA 73.5
57 OLE MISS SEC 73
58 UCLA PAC-12 72.5
59 NEBRASKA BIG TEN 72
60 HOUSTON AAC 72
61 WASHINGTON STATE PAC-12 71.5
62 OHIO MAC 71.5
63 COLORADO PAC-12 71.5
64 NAVY AAC 71
65 USF AAC 70.5
66 MARYLAND BIG TEN 70.5
67 KENTUCKY SEC 70
68 TENNESSEE SEC 70
69 TEMPLE AAC 70
70 TOLEDO MAC 69.5
71 MINNESOTA BIG TEN 69
72 NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAC 69
73 ARKANSAS STATE SBC 69
74 UTAH STATE MWC 69
75 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE CUSA 68.5
76 SYRACUSE ACC 67.5
77 APPALACHIAN STATE SBC 67
78 LOUISIANA TECH CUSA 66.5
79 ARMY INDEPENDENT 66
80 BYU INDEPENDENT 66
81 VANDERBILT SEC 65.5
82 TROY SBC 65.5
83 WYOMING MWC 65
84 MIAMI (OH) MAC 64.5
85 NORTH TEXAS CUSA 64.5
86 VIRGINIA ACC 64
87 WESTERN MICHIGAN MAC 64
88 UAB CUSA 64
89 ILLINOIS BIG TEN 63.5
90 AIR FORCE MWC 63.5
91 NEVADA MWC 63
92 OLD DOMINION CUSA 61.5
93 TULANE AAC 61
94 SMU AAC 61
95 EASTERN MICHIGAN MAC 61
96 BUFFALO MAC 60
97 RUTGERS BIG TEN 60
98 TULSA AAC 59.5
99 COLORADO STATE MWC 59
100 KANSAS BIG 12 59
101 SOUTHERN MISS CUSA 58.5
102 CINCINNATI AAC 58
103 UNLV MWC 58
104 GEORGIA SOUTHERN SBC 58
105 AKRON MAC 58
106 NEW MEXICO MWC 58
107 NEW MEXICO STATE INDEPENDENT 57.5
108 CENTRAL MICHIGAN MAC 57.5
109 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL CUSA 57.5
110 MASSACHUSETTS INDEPENDENT 57
111 LOUISIANA-MONROE SBC 57
112 BOWLING GREEN MAC 56.5
113 OREGON STATE PAC-12 56
114 UTSA CUSA 55.5
115 EAST CAROLINA AAC 55.5
116 WESTERN KENTUCKY CUSA 55
117 BALL STATE MAC 54.5
118 GEORGIA STATE SBC 53.5
119 LOUISIANA SBC 53
120 CONNECTICUT AAC 52.5
121 COASTAL CAROLINA SBC 52
122 CHARLOTTE CUSA 51
123 SOUTH ALABAMA SBC 50.5
124 RICE CUSA 50
125 HAWAII MWC 49.5
126 KENT STATE MAC 48.5
127 TEXAS STATE SBC 48
128 SAN JOSE STATE MWC 48
129 LIBERTY INDEPENDENT 47
130 UTEP CUSA 46

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Advertisement

Must See

More in Football