College Football Week 2 is upon us, or what I like to call overreaction Saturday. This week is always filled with massive overreaction because we only have 1 data point to go by. But we will see many teams that played awful last week play really well this week and vice versa. For that reason, this is one of my favorite weeks for betting. The public suffers from recency bias so they think what happened last week will happen this week and it usually does not happen like that.
We have done our homework all summer and put together our power ratings and I am not going to throw those in the trash after 1 week. So that will present several games where our numbers are different than the betting line. Many of the teams we are on this week did not play well last week but we have to trust the process and trust our homework.
The official picks went 4-5 last week and the added picks went 4-1. So that’s 8-6 overall and not a bad week if you played them all. I am giving you the line I got on these games when I placed them Sunday afternoon so the current line may be different. Who’s ready to go 12-0?!
Arizona did not look good vs BYU last week and while I am a little worried that Tate did not look like himself this is too many points for a team that would’ve been favored in this game before last week. I think Sumlin will get this offense back on track and Arizona keeps this one close
Prediction: Arizona 38 Houston 34
Georgia Tech -3
Georgia Tech is always one of the toughest teams to prepare for and I expect them to grind out a win here. I expect GT to be improved this year and with USF only returning 53% of the tackles from last year they will have a hard time stopping GT.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 35 South Florida 24
Wow, last week was really bad for FAU as they were just manhandled against a really good Oklahoma. Oklahoma might have been the most impressive team I saw last week. But FAU as some really good athletes as Kiffin has done a good job of bringing in transfers. Air Force will be outmanned in this one as they were not very good last year at 5-7 and return 11 starters. I also think fatigue could play a role late as the boys from Colorado Springs are not used to playing in 90-degree humid weather.
Prediction: FAU 45 Air Force 23
Georgia Southern -1.5
I am bullish on Georgia Southern this year and have a futures ticket on them to win the Sun Belt. They are back to running the football and will run all over a bad Umass rush defense. Ga Southern has a veteran offensive line with over 100 starts and Umass gave up 3.6 ypc versus Duquesne and 4.6 against BC last week. UMass lost 5 of their top 7 tacklers from last year and that is not a good thing going up against a team that will run the ball 80% of the time.
Prediction: Ga Southern 35 UMass 24
Miami (oh) -1.5
Classic overreaction here with Cincinnati beating UCLA last weekend. Miami is just better and is seeking revenge for a loss last year where Miami led 17-6 late in the 4th quarter before giving the game away.
Prediction: Miami (oh) 27 Cincinnati 20
Before the season started I had this line at Hawaii -2.5 and before this line came out I made Hawaii -12.5. I have adjusted Hawaii 8.5 points through the first 2 games and maybe that isn’t enough but 18 is just too many points. Rice also hung with Houston for a half and I upgraded them slightly after last week.
Prediction: Hawaii 42 Rice 30
While I have this game power rated at Northwestern -3 I think there is a decided advantage for Duke and their defensive line here. Last year Duke dominated Northwestern in a 41-7 rout in Durham and while this game will be closer I think the Duke defense will be the difference and the Blue Devils will leave with the victory.
Prediction: Duke 24 Northwestern 21
San Jose St +35.5
Washington St should not be favored by 5+ TDs over anybody in FBS. Washington St beating Wyoming 41-19 was one of our misleading finals as that game was much closer than the final score. I also like to play on FBS teams the week after losing to an FCS school as I know I will get their best effort after an embarrassing loss to a lower level school.
Prediction: Washington St 45 San Jose St 17
Last year Texas beat San Jose St 56-0 after their loss to Maryland in the first game and I think we get a similar result here as Texas will come home and take apart a bad Tulsa team. Texas gets the offense rolling before USC comes to town.
Prediction: Texas 52 Tulsa 13
Baylor was not overly impressive in their win over Abilene Christian and Coach Matt Rhule was not too kind about the defensive effort and the mistackles from his defense. UTSA, on the other hand, was handily beat down in Tempe as the Sun Devils held a 503 – 220 yard advantage and UTSA averaged 1.8 yyp. Baylor will be focused here and take care of business before a big game with Duke next week.
Prediction: Baylor 48 UTSA 27
Old Dominion pk
Old Dominion was embarrassed in their opener at Liberty but I am betting the Monarchs get back on track here hosting an FIU team that was down 35-14 to Indiana at home. My power ratings have ODU favored by 7 points in this one.
Prediction: Old Dominion 27 Florida International 20
Indiana was on their way to an easy cover at FIU up 21 points midway through the 3rd and I think Indiana is just a much better team. Last year the Hoosiers went to Virginia and won 34-17 convering as a 3 point road favorite and I think Indiana will be better this year in Tom Allens 2nd year.
Prediction: Indiana 34 Virginia 24
A few more I like…
Arkansas St +36